Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 24

Antalyaspor–Fenerbahçe

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'AntalyasporL. Mercan (own goal)
49'AntalyasporS. van de Streek (assist: B. Balcı)
63'FenerbahçeS. Cherif (assist: M. Asensio)
69'FenerbahçeV. Sarı (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antalyaspor		Fenerbahçe
10	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	14
2	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
259	Passes	499
176	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antalyaspor 0.70 · Fenerbahçe 2.17. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Antalyaspor 10 · Fenerbahçe 14; on target 4 and 5.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

A. Akarsu→

4.58

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.4%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Antalyaspor, 1.90 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 85.4% (X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win).
These values were computed from 1,249 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antalyaspor to win14.6%

Draw23.0%

Fenerbahçe to win62.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Antalyaspor lead at half-time10.4%

Level at half-time34.8%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time54.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Antalyaspor ahead or level45.1%

12 — not level at half-time65.2%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead89.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1248 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antalyaspor: at least 12Actual: 11
Fenerbahçe: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Antalyaspor: at least 3Actual: 3
Fenerbahçe: at least 5Actual: 14

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antalyaspor score0.70

Attack: Antalyaspor score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score2.17

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Antalyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.9%1–111.7%0–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.