Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 24

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Kayserispor

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Kayserispor
10	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
394	Passes	330
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.56 · Kayserispor 1.18. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 10 · Kayserispor 10; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

U. Ozturk→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “Kayserispor to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.26 for Kayserispor.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,248 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win40.1%

Draw27.9%

Kayserispor to win32.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time45.1%

Level at half-time42.1%

Kayserispor lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Kayserispor ahead54.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1247 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 12Actual: 14
Kayserispor: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 3
Kayserispor: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.56

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kayserispor score1.18

Attack: Kayserispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.5%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.