Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 23

Fenerbahçe–Kasımpaşa

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 23 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 17%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'FenerbahçeM. Asensio (assist: N. Dorgeles)
90'KasımpaşaJ. Allevinah (assist: A. Baldursson)
90+3'KasımpaşaM. Ouanes · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fenerbahçe		Kasımpaşa
21	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
554	Passes	269
486	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fenerbahçe 2.44 · Kasımpaşa 0.64. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fenerbahçe 21 · Kasımpaşa 5; on target 5 and 3.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Y. Kol→

5.11

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.7%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.33 for Fenerbahçe, 0.75 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 91.1% (1X — Fenerbahçe win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,241 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fenerbahçe to win73.7%

Draw17.4%

Kasımpaşa to win8.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time68.3%

Level at half-time28.1%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time3.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Fenerbahçe ahead or level96.4%

12 — not level at half-time71.9%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead31.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1240 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fenerbahçe: at least 12Actual: 9
Kasımpaşa: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Fenerbahçe: at least 5Actual: 8
Kasımpaşa: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fenerbahçe score2.44

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score0.64

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.9%2–110.3%3–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.