Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 23

Beşiktaş–Göztepe

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'BeşiktaşW. Ndidi (assist: O. Kökçü)
36'BeşiktaşA. Murillo (assist: K. Asllani)
59'BeşiktaşJ. Olaitan (assist: O. Kökçü)
74'BeşiktaşOh Hyeon-Gyu (assist: V. Černý)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beşiktaş		Göztepe
12	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
59%	Possession	41%
413	Passes	278
327	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beşiktaş 1.61 · Göztepe 1.06. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Beşiktaş 12 · Göztepe 8; on target 7 and 1.
Beşiktaş kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

O. Ergun→

4.13

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.6%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Beşiktaş, 0.96 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 81.9% (1X — Beşiktaş win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,239 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beşiktaş to win57.6%

Draw24.3%

Göztepe to win18.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,983 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Beşiktaş lead at half-time30.7%

Level at half-time43.6%

Göztepe lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Beşiktaş ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead69.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1238 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beşiktaş: at least 9Actual: 14
Göztepe: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Beşiktaş: at least 5Actual: 9
Göztepe: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.61

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.61 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Göztepe score1.06

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%1–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.