Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Alanyaspor–Konyaspor

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'AlanyasporRuan Pereira Duarte (assist: Hwang Ui-Jo)
80'AlanyasporFlorent Hadergjonaj (penalty)
83'KonyasporE. Bardhi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alanyaspor		Konyaspor
19	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
376	Passes	552
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alanyaspor 1.39 · Konyaspor 1.14. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Alanyaspor 19 · Konyaspor 9; on target 6 and 2.
Konyaspor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Yilmaz→

3.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Alanyaspor to win”. Second comes “Konyaspor to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Alanyaspor, 1.16 for Konyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,227 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alanyaspor to win42.6%

Draw28.2%

Konyaspor to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Alanyaspor lead at half-time45.1%

Level at half-time41.2%

Konyaspor lead at half-time13.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Alanyaspor ahead or level86.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Konyaspor ahead54.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1226 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alanyaspor: at least 12Actual: 10
Konyaspor: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Alanyaspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Konyaspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alanyaspor score1.39

Attack: Alanyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Konyaspor score1.14

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alanyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–09.8%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.