Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Rizespor

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Ali Sowe (own goal)
45'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Sekou Koita (assist: Franco Tongya)
77'RizesporMithat Pala (assist: Adedire Mebude)
87'RizesporMithat Pala (assist: V. Mihaila)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Rizespor
12	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	11
2	Offsides	7
38%	Possession	62%
228	Passes	354
164	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.42 · Rizespor 1.37. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 12 · Rizespor 15; on target 4 and 6.
Rizespor kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

O. Guldibi→

5.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “Rizespor to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.21 for Rizespor.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,226 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win39.2%

Draw28.6%

Rizespor to win32.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time43.7%

Rizespor lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Rizespor ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1225 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 11Actual: 17
Rizespor: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 4
Rizespor: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.42

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rizespor score1.37

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–09.5%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.