Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Antalyaspor–Samsunspor

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'AntalyasporSamuel Ballet (assist: R. Safouri)
22'AntalyasporSamuel Ballet (assist: D. Sinik)
72'AntalyasporN. Storm (assist: S. Karakoç)
90'SamsunsporO. Ntcham (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antalyaspor		Samsunspor
13	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	10
1	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
244	Passes	452
185	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antalyaspor 0.94 · Samsunspor 1.39. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Antalyaspor 13 · Samsunspor 13; on target 5 and 3.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. D. Kayatepe→

4.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Samsunspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Antalyaspor, 1.41 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Samsunspor win).
These values were computed from 1,224 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antalyaspor to win25.7%

Draw28.7%

Samsunspor to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	10

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Antalyaspor lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time44.8%

Samsunspor lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Antalyaspor ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1223 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antalyaspor: at least 11Actual: 17
Samsunspor: at least 14Actual: 10

Corners

Antalyaspor: at least 3Actual: 4
Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antalyaspor score0.94

Attack: Antalyaspor score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score1.39

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antalyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–111.7%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.