Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Galatasaray–Eyüpspor

5–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'GalatasarayYunus Akgün (assist: V. Osimhen)
33'GalatasarayM. Icardi
38'EyüpsporBedirhan Özyurt · red card
48'GalatasarayM. Icardi (assist: V. Osimhen)
70'GalatasarayM. Icardi (assist: Barış Alper Yılmaz)
71'EyüpsporMetehan Altunbaş

Match statistics

Match statistics
Galatasaray		Eyüpspor
21	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
12	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
517	Passes	318
470	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Galatasaray 2.52 · Eyüpspor 0.66. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Galatasaray 21 · Eyüpspor 6; on target 9 and 3.
Galatasaray kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

C. Altay→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.7%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.01 for Galatasaray, 0.74 for Eyüpspor.
The highest double chance value is 95.0% (1X — Galatasaray win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,224 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Galatasaray to win83.7%

Draw11.3%

Eyüpspor to win5.0%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Galatasaray lead at half-time54.0%

Level at half-time38.5%

Eyüpspor lead at half-time7.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Galatasaray ahead or level92.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Eyüpspor ahead46.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1223 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 13
Eyüpspor: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Galatasaray: at least 6Actual: 12
Eyüpspor: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Galatasaray score2.52

Attack: Galatasaray score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eyüpspor score0.66

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.1%2–010.8%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.