Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 21

Konyaspor–Göztepe

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Konyaspor		Göztepe
11	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
429	Passes	252
346	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Konyaspor 1.14 · Göztepe 1.46. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Konyaspor 11 · Göztepe 7; on target 4 and 1.
Konyaspor kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Y. Kol→

5.09

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Konyaspor to win”. Second comes “Göztepe to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Konyaspor, 1.17 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,218 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Konyaspor to win37.5%

Draw29.5%

Göztepe to win33.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Konyaspor lead at half-time16.2%

Level at half-time42.7%

Göztepe lead at half-time41.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Konyaspor ahead or level58.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead83.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1217 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Konyaspor: at least 9Actual: 9
Göztepe: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Konyaspor: at least 5Actual: 4
Göztepe: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Konyaspor score1.14

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.46

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–010.2%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.