Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Göztepe–Fatih Karagümrük

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olympic Stadium, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Fatih KaragümrükSerginho (assist: Baris Kalayci)
20'GöztepeJ. Olaitan
45'GöztepeJanderson

Match statistics

Match statistics
Göztepe		Fatih Karagümrük
19	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
295	Passes	378
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Göztepe 1.91 · Fatih Karagümrük 0.78. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Göztepe 19 · Fatih Karagümrük 8; on target 7 and 3.
Fatih Karagümrük kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

O. Guldibi→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.9%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Göztepe, 0.77 for Fatih Karagümrük.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (1X — Göztepe win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,210 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Göztepe to win62.9%

Draw23.3%

Fatih Karagümrük to win13.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Göztepe lead at half-time45.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Göztepe ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Fatih Karagümrük ahead54.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1209 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Göztepe: at least 16Actual: 20
Fatih Karagümrük: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Göztepe: at least 5Actual: 6
Fatih Karagümrük: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Göztepe score1.91

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score0.78

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.9%2–012.8%1–111.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.