Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Kasımpaşa–Samsunspor

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 30 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'SamsunsporJ. Assoumou (assist: A. Makoumbou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kasımpaşa		Samsunspor
11	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
474	Passes	446
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kasımpaşa 1.10 · Samsunspor 1.36. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Kasımpaşa 11 · Samsunspor 8; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

C. Altay→

1.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Samsunspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Kasımpaşa, 1.40 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (X2 — draw or Samsunspor win).
These values were computed from 1,206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kasımpaşa to win27.9%

Draw28.6%

Samsunspor to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time45.3%

Samsunspor lead at half-time33.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Kasımpaşa ahead or level66.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1205 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kasımpaşa: at least 11Actual: 21
Samsunspor: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 4
Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.10

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score1.36

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.8%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.