Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Gaziantep FK–Konyaspor

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Gaziantep FKD. Sorescu (assist: D. Dragus)
88'KonyasporBlaž Kramer (assist: Deniz Türüç)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gaziantep FK		Konyaspor
15	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
287	Passes	412
214	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gaziantep FK 1.59 · Konyaspor 1.28. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Gaziantep FK 15 · Konyaspor 11; on target 2 and 6.
Konyaspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

K. Saglam→

2.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Gaziantep FK to win”. Second comes “Konyaspor to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Gaziantep FK, 1.28 for Konyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gaziantep FK to win42.8%

Draw26.9%

Konyaspor to win30.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

6	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time42.5%

Level at half-time40.3%

Konyaspor lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Konyaspor ahead57.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1200 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gaziantep FK: at least 12Actual: 16
Konyaspor: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Gaziantep FK: at least 4Actual: 10
Konyaspor: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.59

Attack: Gaziantep FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Konyaspor score1.28

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.9%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.