Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Fatih Karagümrük–Galatasaray

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'GalatasarayGabriel Sara (assist: İlkay Gündoğan)
27'Fatih KaragümrükBaris Kalayci (assist: Serginho)
51'GalatasarayGabriel Sara (assist: Roland Sallai)
55'GalatasarayV. Osimhen (assist: İlkay Gündoğan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Galatasaray
10	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	6
7	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
347	Passes	617
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 0.73 · Galatasaray 2.27. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 10 · Galatasaray 11; on target 3 and 4.
Galatasaray kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Karaoglan→

5.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.2%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.81 for Fatih Karagümrük, 2.57 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 91.8% (X2 — draw or Galatasaray win).
These values were computed from 1,200 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win8.2%

Draw15.6%

Galatasaray to win76.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time7.4%

Level at half-time37.7%

Galatasaray lead at half-time54.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level45.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead92.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1199 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 11Actual: 8
Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 3Actual: 2
Galatasaray: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score0.73

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score2.27

Attack: Galatasaray score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.27 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.5%1–210.0%0–39.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.