Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Trabzonspor–Kasımpaşa

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Papara Park, Trabzon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'TrabzonsporPaul Onuachu (assist: Christ Inao Oulaï)
61'KasımpaşaF. Diabate (assist: İ. Kahveci)
84'TrabzonsporO. Zubkov (assist: A. Nwakaeme)
90'KasımpaşaKerem Demirbay · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Trabzonspor		Kasımpaşa
14	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
504	Passes	380
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Trabzonspor 1.89 · Kasımpaşa 1.07. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Trabzonspor 14 · Kasımpaşa 6; on target 3 and 2.
Trabzonspor kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Yilmaz→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.7%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Trabzonspor, 1.04 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — Trabzonspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Trabzonspor to win60.7%

Draw22.2%

Kasımpaşa to win17.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Trabzonspor lead at half-time51.0%

Level at half-time37.0%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Trabzonspor ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead49.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Trabzonspor: at least 12Actual: 18
Kasımpaşa: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Trabzonspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.89

Attack: Trabzonspor score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.07

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.9%2–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.