Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Fatih Karagümrük–Kocaelispor

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'Fatih KaragümrükD. D. Fofana (assist: D. Johnson)
90'KocaelisporB. Petkovic (assist: Hrvoje Smolčić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Kocaelispor
8	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
302	Passes	546
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 · Kocaelispor 1.29. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 8 · Kocaelispor 16; on target 2 and 5.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Cagdas Altay, Türkiye→

4.50

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.3%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.35 for Kocaelispor.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (X2 — draw or Kocaelispor win).
These values were computed from 1,175 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win26.3%

Draw29.4%

Kocaelispor to win44.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time47.9%

Kocaelispor lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Kocaelispor ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1174 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 13Actual: 15
Kocaelispor: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 3Actual: 2
Kocaelispor: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score0.99

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.29

Attack: Kocaelispor score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–112.1%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.