Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Gaziantep FK–Göztepe

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'GöztepeJanderson (assist: A. Cherni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gaziantep FK		Göztepe
19	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
329	Passes	245
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gaziantep FK 1.17 · Göztepe 1.56. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Gaziantep FK 19 · Göztepe 15; on target 3 and 5.
Gaziantep FK kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Cihan Aydin, Türkiye→

3.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “Gaziantep FK to win” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Gaziantep FK, 1.43 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,174 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gaziantep FK to win28.4%

Draw28.3%

Göztepe to win43.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time43.8%

Göztepe lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1173 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gaziantep FK: at least 9Actual: 12
Göztepe: at least 16Actual: 14

Corners

Gaziantep FK: at least 4Actual: 8
Göztepe: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.17

Attack: Gaziantep FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.56

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–110.2%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.