Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 15

Kocaelispor–Kasımpaşa

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Kasımpaşa
9	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
6	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
456	Passes	223
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 1.41 · Kasımpaşa 1.05. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Kocaelispor 9 · Kasımpaşa 4; on target 3 and 0.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Ali Sansalan, Türkiye→

4.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.7%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Kocaelispor, 0.84 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Kocaelispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,166 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win56.7%

Draw25.8%

Kasımpaşa to win17.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kocaelispor lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time42.5%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1165 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 13Actual: 10
Kasımpaşa: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 4Actual: 5
Kasımpaşa: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.41

Attack: Kocaelispor score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.05

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–013.0%2–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.