Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 14

Fatih Karagümrük–Beşiktaş

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'BeşiktaşJota Silva (assist: V. Cerny)
71'BeşiktaşEl Bilal Touré (assist: C. Under)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Beşiktaş
7	Shots	27
0	Shots on target	12
3	Shots inside the box	18
10	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	9
2	Offsides	6
38%	Possession	62%
274	Passes	451
200	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 0.97 · Beşiktaş 1.82. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 7 · Beşiktaş 27; on target 0 and 12.
Beşiktaş kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Halil Umut Meler, Türkiye→

5.14

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.92 for Beşiktaş.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Beşiktaş win).
These values were computed from 1,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win20.3%

Draw23.7%

Beşiktaş to win56.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time19.0%

Level at half-time41.1%

Beşiktaş lead at half-time39.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level60.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Beşiktaş ahead81.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1157 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 13Actual: 11
Beşiktaş: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 2
Beşiktaş: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score0.97

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.82

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–210.9%0–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.