Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Alanyaspor–Kasımpaşa

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanya

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'AlanyasporHwang Ui-Jo (assist: Florent Hadergjonaj)
48'KasımpaşaP. Gueye (assist: Cláudio Winck)
52'KasımpaşaP. Gueye (assist: Cafu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alanyaspor		Kasımpaşa
17	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
13	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
589	Passes	273
527	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alanyaspor 1.58 · Kasımpaşa 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Alanyaspor 17 · Kasımpaşa 8; on target 6 and 4.
Alanyaspor kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Yigit Arslan, Türkiye→

6.50

yellows per match

1.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Alanyaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Alanyaspor, 1.05 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Alanyaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,147 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alanyaspor to win50.7%

Draw26.4%

Kasımpaşa to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Alanyaspor lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time41.7%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Alanyaspor ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1146 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alanyaspor: at least 11Actual: 9
Kasımpaşa: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Alanyaspor: at least 4Actual: 13
Kasımpaşa: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alanyaspor score1.58

Attack: Alanyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.17

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alanyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.6%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.