Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Beşiktaş–Samsunspor

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'BeşiktaşC. Under (penalty)
66'SamsunsporC. Ndiaye

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beşiktaş		Samsunspor
14	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
522	Passes	334
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beşiktaş 1.56 · Samsunspor 1.00. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Beşiktaş 14 · Samsunspor 14; on target 2 and 6.
Beşiktaş kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye→

6.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.9%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Beşiktaş, 1.21 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (1X — Beşiktaş win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,147 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beşiktaş to win48.9%

Draw25.6%

Samsunspor to win25.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Beşiktaş lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time41.5%

Samsunspor lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Beşiktaş ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1146 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beşiktaş: at least 11Actual: 10
Samsunspor: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Beşiktaş: at least 5Actual: 4
Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.56

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score1.00

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.5%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.