Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Kocaelispor–Galatasaray

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'KocaelisporDan Agyei (assist: S. Dursun)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Galatasaray
9	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
4	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
277	Passes	505
205	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 0.86 · Galatasaray 1.84. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Kocaelispor 9 · Galatasaray 12; on target 3 and 3.
Galatasaray kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Cagdas Altay, Türkiye→

5.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.2%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for Kocaelispor, 2.10 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (X2 — draw or Galatasaray win).
These values were computed from 1,140 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win13.0%

Draw20.8%

Galatasaray to win66.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kocaelispor lead at half-time12.8%

Level at half-time43.1%

Galatasaray lead at half-time44.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level55.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead87.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1139 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 12Actual: 13
Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 4Actual: 1
Galatasaray: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score0.86

Attack: Kocaelispor score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score1.84

Attack: Galatasaray score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.7%1–210.9%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.