Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Fatih Karagümrük–Konyaspor

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Fatih KaragümrükSerginho
45'Fatih KaragümrükD. D. Fofana (assist: Ç. Kurukalıp)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Konyaspor
10	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
368	Passes	488
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 1.26 · Konyaspor 1.47. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 10 · Konyaspor 12; on target 4 and 3.
Konyaspor kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Adnan Deniz Kayatepe, Türkiye→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “Konyaspor to win”. Second comes “Fatih Karagümrük to win” at 36.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.38 for Konyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,139 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win36.1%

Draw27.6%

Konyaspor to win36.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time25.0%

Level at half-time42.9%

Konyaspor lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Konyaspor ahead75.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1138 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 13Actual: 17
Konyaspor: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 4
Konyaspor: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.26

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Konyaspor score1.47

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.1%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.