Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Kasımpaşa–Göztepe

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'GöztepeJuan Santos da Silva (assist: Janderson)
55'GöztepeJuan Santos da Silva (assist: Efkan Bekiroğlu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kasımpaşa		Göztepe
12	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
426	Passes	201
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kasımpaşa 1.22 · Göztepe 1.55. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Kasımpaşa 12 · Göztepe 15; on target 3 and 3.
Kasımpaşa kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Omer Tolga Guldibi, Türkiye→

5.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Kasımpaşa, 1.40 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (X2 — draw or Göztepe win).
These values were computed from 1,137 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kasımpaşa to win27.1%

Draw28.8%

Göztepe to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	24

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time15.7%

Level at half-time40.4%

Göztepe lead at half-time43.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Kasımpaşa ahead or level56.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead84.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1136 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kasımpaşa: at least 10Actual: 7
Göztepe: at least 13Actual: 24

Corners

Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 5
Göztepe: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.22

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.55

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–111.2%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.