Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Başakşehir

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Thalisson (assist: T. Dele-Bashiru)
46'BaşakşehirEldor Shomurodov (assist: M. Crespo)
53'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Niang (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Başakşehir
15	Shots	19
7	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	15
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	9
0	Offsides	2
28%	Possession	72%
206	Passes	534
148	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.23 · Başakşehir 1.40. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 15 · Başakşehir 19; on target 7 and 3.
Başakşehir kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Direnc Tonusluoglu, Türkiye→

5.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Başakşehir to win”. Second comes “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.45 for Başakşehir.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,134 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win28.9%

Draw28.0%

Başakşehir to win43.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time24.5%

Level at half-time43.7%

Başakşehir lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Başakşehir ahead75.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1133 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 13Actual: 20
Başakşehir: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 4
Başakşehir: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.23

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Başakşehir score1.40

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.8%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.