Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 11

Kayserispor–Kasımpaşa

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'KayserisporFurkan Soyalp (assist: J. Mendes)
19'KasımpaşaCláudio Winck (assist: A. Szalai)
32'KayserisporS. Denswil (assist: J. Mendes)
67'KasımpaşaK. Kanatsizkus
81'KayserisporI. Tuci (assist: R. Civelek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kayserispor		Kasımpaşa
11	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	6
4	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
313	Passes	403
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kayserispor 1.46 · Kasımpaşa 1.48. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Kayserispor 11 · Kasımpaşa 11; on target 3 and 4.
Kasımpaşa kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Kadir Saglam, Türkiye→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.8%: “Kayserispor to win”. Second comes “Kasımpaşa to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Kayserispor, 1.24 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,129 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kayserispor to win44.8%

Draw26.7%

Kasımpaşa to win28.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Kayserispor lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time43.1%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Kayserispor ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1128 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kayserispor: at least 12Actual: 12
Kasımpaşa: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Kayserispor: at least 4Actual: 4
Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kayserispor score1.46

Attack: Kayserispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.48

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.2%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.