Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 11

Konyaspor–Samsunspor

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'SamsunsporA. Musaba
13'SamsunsporC. Ndiaye (assist: Celil Yüksel)
57'SamsunsporR. Bazoer (own goal)
59'KonyasporUmut Nayir (assist: Yhoan Andzouana)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Konyaspor		Samsunspor
23	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
420	Passes	300
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Konyaspor 1.25 · Samsunspor 1.24. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Konyaspor 23 · Samsunspor 12; on target 7 and 3.
Konyaspor kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Ali Sansalan, Türkiye→

5.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Konyaspor to win”. Second comes “Samsunspor to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Konyaspor, 1.27 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,128 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Konyaspor to win37.6%

Draw28.3%

Samsunspor to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Konyaspor lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time43.9%

Samsunspor lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Konyaspor ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1127 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Konyaspor: at least 10Actual: 10
Samsunspor: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Konyaspor: at least 4Actual: 9
Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Konyaspor score1.25

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score1.24

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.2%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.