Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 10

Fatih Karagümrük–Kayserispor

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Fatih KaragümrükS. Larsson (penalty)
68'KayserisporG. Onugkha (assist: M. Cardoso)
74'KayserisporG. Onugkha (assist: J. Mendes)
79'Fatih KaragümrükA. Çankaya (assist: Ç. Kurukalıp)
90+1'KayserisporL. Benes · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Kayserispor
10	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	10
5	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
5	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
366	Passes	406
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 1.49 · Kayserispor 1.34. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 10 · Kayserispor 13; on target 3 and 10.

Referee

Yasin Kol, Türkiye→

3.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Fatih Karagümrük to win”. Second comes “Kayserispor to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.29 for Kayserispor.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win43.6%

Draw26.6%

Kayserispor to win29.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time43.9%

Kayserispor lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Kayserispor ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 11Actual: 16
Kayserispor: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 1
Kayserispor: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.49

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kayserispor score1.34

Attack: Kayserispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.0%1–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.