Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 8

Kasımpaşa–Konyaspor

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'KonyasporJackson Muleka (assist: Umut Nayir)
72'KasımpaşaCláudio Winck (assist: K. Kanatsizkus)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kasımpaşa		Konyaspor
10	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
385	Passes	382
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kasımpaşa 1.57 · Konyaspor 1.26. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Kasımpaşa 10 · Konyaspor 7; on target 2 and 6.

Referee

Alper Akarsu, Türkiye→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Konyaspor to win”. Second comes “Kasımpaşa to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Kasımpaşa, 1.31 for Konyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,101 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kasımpaşa to win35.4%

Draw28.4%

Konyaspor to win36.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time41.8%

Konyaspor lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kasımpaşa ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Konyaspor ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1100 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kasımpaşa: at least 12Actual: 14
Konyaspor: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Kasımpaşa: at least 5Actual: 5
Konyaspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.57

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Konyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Konyaspor score1.26

Attack: Konyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–28.9%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.