Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 7

Fatih Karagümrük–Trabzonspor

3–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Trabzonspor
13	Shots	22
3	Shots on target	11
9	Shots inside the box	14
7	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
351	Passes	439
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 · Trabzonspor 1.43. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 13 · Trabzonspor 22; on target 3 and 11.
Trabzonspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Mehmet Turkmen, Türkiye→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “Fatih Karagümrük to win” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.57 for Trabzonspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,090 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win27.5%

Draw27.0%

Trabzonspor to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time24.6%

Level at half-time44.7%

Trabzonspor lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Trabzonspor ahead75.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1089 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 11Actual: 18
Trabzonspor: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 1
Trabzonspor: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.13

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.43

Attack: Trabzonspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.2%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.