Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 7

Eyüpspor–Göztepe

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eyüpspor		Göztepe
6	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
5	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
386	Passes	276
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eyüpspor 1.23 · Göztepe 1.57. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Eyüpspor 6 · Göztepe 16; on target 2 and 2.
Eyüpspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Kadir Saglam, Türkiye→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “Eyüpspor to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Eyüpspor, 1.36 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eyüpspor to win29.2%

Draw29.0%

Göztepe to win41.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eyüpspor lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time44.8%

Göztepe lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Eyüpspor ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1087 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eyüpspor: at least 9Actual: 6
Göztepe: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Eyüpspor: at least 3Actual: 6
Göztepe: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.23

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.57

Attack: Göztepe score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–110.7%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.