Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Paris Saint Germain–Auxerre

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'AuxerreL. Sinayoko (assist: G. Perrin)
59'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: Fabián Ruiz)
67'Paris Saint GermainMarquinhos (assist: N. Mendes)
88'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: S. Mayulu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Auxerre
21	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
660	Passes	323
602	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.58 · Auxerre 0.72. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 21 · Auxerre 7; on target 9 and 2.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Kherradji→

3.61

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.4%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.33 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.77 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 95.8% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 983 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win86.4%

Draw9.4%

Auxerre to win4.2%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time46.1%

Level at half-time38.9%

Auxerre lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead53.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 983 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 9Actual: 10
Auxerre: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 6Actual: 5
Auxerre: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.58

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 67% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score0.72

Attack: Auxerre score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.6%2–09.1%4–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.