Levski Sofia–AEK Athens FC

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 18 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levski Sofia		AEK Athens FC
15	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
490	Passes	459
431	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Sofia 0.99 · AEK Athens FC 0.95. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Levski Sofia 15 · AEK Athens FC 12; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

G. Nyberg→

3.40

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.8%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “AEK Athens FC to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Levski Sofia, 0.95 for AEK Athens FC.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,859 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Sofia to win35.8%

Draw30.6%

AEK Athens FC to win33.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Sofia score0.99

Attack: Levski Sofia score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.99 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score0.95

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.95 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–014.7%0–114.1%0–014.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.