Fenerbahçe–Lyon

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 18 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'LyonLoïs Openda (assist: Corentin Tolisso)
47'FenerbahçeM. Greenwood (assist: K. Akturkoglu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fenerbahçe		Lyon
12	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	0
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
454	Passes	432
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fenerbahçe 1.67 · Lyon 1.47. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fenerbahçe 12 · Lyon 12; on target 5 and 5.

Unavailable players

Fenerbahçe

A. Yesilyurtout · not in squad
C. Soyuncuout · injury
C. Underout · not in squad
D. Livakovićout · Transfer negotiations
Diego Carlosout · not in squad
E. Demirout · not in squad
J. Oosterwoldeout · Achilles Tendon Injury
M. Gunokout · Muscle Injury
M. Yandasout · not in squad
O. Fayedout · not in squad
O. Mimovicout · not in squad
Rodrigo Becaoout · not in squad

Lyon

Khalis Merahout · Ankle Injury
Nicolás Tagliafico

Referee

S. Jablonski→

3.98

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “Lyon to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Fenerbahçe, 1.47 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,675 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fenerbahçe to win42.9%

Draw22.9%

Lyon to win34.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Pavel Šulcout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Fenerbahçe win or draw65.8%

12 — any result other than a draw77.1%

X2 — draw or Lyon win57.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.9%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.67

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.47

Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.3%2–18.9%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2675 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.