Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

1. FC Heidenheim–Werder Bremen

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Werder BremenRomano Schmid (penalty)
33'Werder BremenJ. Stage (assist: M. Ducksch)
66'Werder BremenM. Ducksch (assist: M. Weiser)
80'1. FC HeidenheimL. Kerber (assist: Léo Scienza)
86'Werder BremenK. Topp

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Werder Bremen
21	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
498	Passes	480
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.37 · Werder Bremen 1.59. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 21 · Werder Bremen 13; on target 8 and 7.

Referee

T. Welz→

4.52

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Werder Bremen to win”. Second comes “1. FC Heidenheim to win” at 36.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.70 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win36.6%

Draw24.7%

Werder Bremen to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time24.0%

Level at half-time39.4%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time36.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level63.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead76.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 11Actual: 11
Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 6
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.37

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.59

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–29.1%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.