Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Borussia Dortmund–Holstein Kiel

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (penalty)
9'Holstein KielC. Johansson · red card
47'Borussia DortmundM. Sabitzer (assist: J. Brandt)
72'Borussia DortmundF. Nmecha (assist: D. Svensson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		Holstein Kiel
19	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
74%	Possession	26%
696	Passes	248
647	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund 2.59 · Holstein Kiel 1.02. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Borussia Dortmund 19 · Holstein Kiel 4; on target 6 and 2.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

H. Osmers→

4.32

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.8%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.45 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.89 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 95.3% (1X — Borussia Dortmund win or draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Dortmund to win85.8%

Draw9.5%

Holstein Kiel to win4.7%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time56.1%

Level at half-time31.0%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Dortmund ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time69.0%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead43.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 12
Holstein Kiel: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Borussia Dortmund: at least 6Actual: 7
Holstein Kiel: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score2.59

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.59 goals.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.02

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–09.2%3–18.8%4–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.