Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

VfB Stuttgart–FC Augsburg

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'VfB StuttgartA. Karazor
11'FC AugsburgS. Essende · red card
51'VfB StuttgartNick Woltemade (assist: E. Millot)
80'VfB StuttgartE. Millot
87'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović (assist: C. Fuhrich)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		FC Augsburg
29	Shots	7
11	Shots on target	0
23	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
71%	Possession	29%
662	Passes	263
605	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 1.96 · FC Augsburg 1.05. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 29 · FC Augsburg 7; on target 11 and 0.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

T. Gerach→

4.16

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.2%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.14 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 83.6% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 908 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win63.2%

Draw20.4%

FC Augsburg to win16.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time38.4%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 908 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 10Actual: 9
FC Augsburg: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 5Actual: 11
FC Augsburg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.96

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.05

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%1–19.4%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.