Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Bayer Leverkusen–Borussia Dortmund

2–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Bayer LeverkusenJ. Frimpong (assist: F. Wirtz)
33'Borussia DortmundJ. Brandt (assist: K. Adeyemi)
43'Borussia DortmundJ. Ryerson (assist: P. Groß)
73'Borussia DortmundK. Adeyemi (assist: J. Brandt)
77'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy
90+2'Bayer LeverkusenJ. Hofmann

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Borussia Dortmund
19	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
12	Corners	0
5	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
605	Passes	385
538	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 · Borussia Dortmund 1.29. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 19 · Borussia Dortmund 9; on target 10 and 5.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.44

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “Borussia Dortmund to win” at 37.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.66 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 906 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win37.7%

Draw24.8%

Borussia Dortmund to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time36.2%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.8%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 906 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 7
Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 5
Borussia Dortmund: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.82

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.29

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.29 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–19.0%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.