Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Union Berlin–1. FC Heidenheim

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'1. FC HeidenheimA. Beck (assist: M. Pieringer)
56'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Schöppner
73'1. FC HeidenheimA. Beck (assist: P. Wanner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		1. FC Heidenheim
10	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
452	Passes	465
375	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.57 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Union Berlin 10 · 1. FC Heidenheim 8; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

F. Badstübner→

3.90

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Union Berlin, 1.17 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — Union Berlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 901 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win47.8%

Draw26.3%

1. FC Heidenheim to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Union Berlin lead at half-time39.4%

Level at half-time39.3%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead60.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 901 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 14
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 1
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.57

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.17

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.4%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.