Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

FC St. Pauli–VfB Stuttgart

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'FC St. PauliS. Van der Heyden · red card
88'VfB StuttgartN. Woltemade (assist: E. Demirović)
90+6'FC St. PauliN. Vasilj · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		VfB Stuttgart
6	Shots	21
1	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	17
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	4
30%	Possession	70%
263	Passes	628
196	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.29 · VfB Stuttgart 1.50. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 6 · VfB Stuttgart 21; on target 1 and 8.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

F. Exner→

4.47

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “FC St. Pauli to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for FC St. Pauli, 1.45 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 892 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win34.3%

Draw27.2%

VfB Stuttgart to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

6	Yellow cards	3

2	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time22.1%

Level at half-time42.2%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time35.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level64.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead77.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 892 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 17
VfB Stuttgart: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 4
VfB Stuttgart: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.29

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.50

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–29.4%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.