Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

1. FC Heidenheim–VfL Bochum

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 2 May 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		VfL Bochum
11	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
367	Passes	436
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 · VfL Bochum 1.34. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 11 · VfL Bochum 14; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

S. Stegemann→

5.00

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “1. FC Heidenheim to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.25 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 891 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win40.7%

Draw27.7%

VfL Bochum to win31.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time40.3%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 891 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 9Actual: 8
VfL Bochum: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 6
VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.70

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.34

Attack: VfL Bochum score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.6%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.