Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Werder Bremen–FC St. Pauli

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+2'FC St. PauliC. Metcalfe · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Werder Bremen		FC St. Pauli
11	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
473	Passes	463
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Werder Bremen 1.53 · FC St. Pauli 1.20. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Werder Bremen 11 · FC St. Pauli 10; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

T. Reichel→

3.92

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Werder Bremen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Werder Bremen, 1.12 for FC St. Pauli.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (1X — Werder Bremen win or draw).
These values were computed from 890 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Werder Bremen to win48.4%

Draw26.6%

FC St. Pauli to win25.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Werder Bremen lead at half-time32.3%

Level at half-time41.8%

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Werder Bremen ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or FC St. Pauli ahead67.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 890 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 9
FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Werder Bremen: at least 4Actual: 1
FC St. Pauli: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.53

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.20

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.4%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.