Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

VfL Bochum–Union Berlin

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Union BerlinB. Hollerbach
68'VfL BochumM. Bero

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		Union Berlin
10	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	4
5	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
509	Passes	263
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.40 · Union Berlin 1.49. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots VfL Bochum 10 · Union Berlin 5; on target 4 and 1.
VfL Bochum kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.46

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for VfL Bochum, 1.26 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 889 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win40.8%

Draw27.7%

Union Berlin to win31.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfL Bochum lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time39.8%

Union Berlin lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 889 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 11
Union Berlin: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 5Actual: 10
Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.40

Attack: VfL Bochum score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.49

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.7%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.