Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Bayer Leverkusen–FC Augsburg

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: N. Tella)
45+1'Bayer LeverkusenE. Buendía

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		FC Augsburg
14	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
5	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
519	Passes	461
451	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 · FC Augsburg 0.79. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 14 · FC Augsburg 11; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

C. Dingert→

4.47

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.0%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Bayer Leverkusen, 0.92 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw).
These values were computed from 883 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win65.0%

Draw21.0%

FC Augsburg to win14.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time50.1%

Level at half-time36.2%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time13.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen ahead or level86.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.8%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead49.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 883 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 10
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 6Actual: 3
FC Augsburg: at least 2Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.02

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score0.79

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%2–010.9%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.