Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

VfB Stuttgart–1. FC Heidenheim

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 25 April 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'1. FC HeidenheimM. Honsak (assist: J. Schöppner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		1. FC Heidenheim
19	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
710	Passes	302
641	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 2.24 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.05. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 19 · 1. FC Heidenheim 6; on target 3 and 2.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

T. Welz→

4.54

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.0%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.30 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.04 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 882 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win66.0%

Draw19.7%

1. FC Heidenheim to win14.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time55.2%

Level at half-time33.4%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time66.6%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead44.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 882 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 10Actual: 14
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 5Actual: 6
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score2.24

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.05

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%2–09.5%1–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.