Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

FC St. Pauli–Bayer Leverkusen

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: Álex Grimaldo)
78'FC St. PauliC. Boukhalfa

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		Bayer Leverkusen
10	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
427	Passes	585
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 0.99 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.67. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 10 · Bayer Leverkusen 6; on target 5 and 4.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Storks→

4.15

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.8%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for FC St. Pauli, 1.78 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (X2 — draw or Bayer Leverkusen win).
These values were computed from 881 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win18.4%

Draw24.7%

Bayer Leverkusen to win56.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time17.0%

Level at half-time39.6%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time43.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level56.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead83.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 881 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 9Actual: 12
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 3Actual: 4
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score0.99

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.67

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%0–110.8%1–210.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.