Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

SC Freiburg–1899 Hoffenheim

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'SC FreiburgL. Höler (assist: J. Manzambi)
36'SC FreiburgR. Doan (assist: V. Grifo)
45+2'1899 HoffenheimM. Bülter
45+5'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić
57'SC FreiburgL. Höler (assist: V. Grifo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		1899 Hoffenheim
12	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
332	Passes	500
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.77 · 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots SC Freiburg 12 · 1899 Hoffenheim 19; on target 6 and 6.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Stegemann→

5.00

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.5%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for SC Freiburg, 1.17 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — SC Freiburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 873 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win50.5%

Draw25.3%

1899 Hoffenheim to win24.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

SC Freiburg lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time39.4%

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or 1899 Hoffenheim ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 873 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 14
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 4Actual: 2
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.77

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.26

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.7%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.