Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

Eintracht Frankfurt–1. FC Heidenheim

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 April 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Eintracht FrankfurtJ. Bahoya (assist: F. Chaibi)
42'Eintracht FrankfurtR. Koch (assist: H. Ekitike)
71'Eintracht FrankfurtH. Ekitike (assist: N. Brown)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		1. FC Heidenheim
19	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	4
44%	Possession	56%
490	Passes	612
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.12 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.11. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 19 · 1. FC Heidenheim 14; on target 8 and 3.
1. FC Heidenheim kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

T. Gerach→

4.20

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.12 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Eintracht Frankfurt win or draw).
These values were computed from 872 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win55.2%

Draw24.0%

1. FC Heidenheim to win20.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time51.2%

Level at half-time35.2%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.8%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead48.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 872 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 6
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 5Actual: 5
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score2.12

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.11

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.9%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.