Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

Bayern München–Borussia Dortmund

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Arena, München

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Borussia DortmundM. Beier (assist: J. Ryerson)
65'Bayern MünchenR. Guerreiro (assist: T. Müller)
69'Bayern MünchenS. Gnabry (assist: J. Stanišić)
75'Borussia DortmundW. Anton

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Borussia Dortmund
28	Shots	11
11	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
641	Passes	384
568	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 2.39 · Borussia Dortmund 1.04. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Bayern München 28 · Borussia Dortmund 11; on target 11 and 3.
Bayern München kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

T. Welz→

4.65

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.8%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.51 for Bayern München, 1.18 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 85.3% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 870 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win66.8%

Draw18.5%

Borussia Dortmund to win14.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bayern München lead at half-time53.4%

Level at half-time33.2%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayern München ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time66.8%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead46.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 870 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 8
Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Bayern München: at least 5Actual: 6
Borussia Dortmund: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score2.39

Attack: Bayern München score 66% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.04

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.2%3–18.6%1–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.