Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

VfL Bochum–FC Augsburg

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'FC AugsburgS. Essende (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
60'VfL BochumP. Hofmann (assist: F. Passlack)
81'FC AugsburgA. Maier · red card
90'FC AugsburgM. Kömür (assist: P. Tietz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		FC Augsburg
25	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	5
17	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
7	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
427	Passes	388
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.39 · FC Augsburg 1.40. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots VfL Bochum 25 · FC Augsburg 12; on target 9 and 5.

Referee

M. Petersen→

4.55

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “FC Augsburg to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for VfL Bochum, 1.15 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 865 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win40.3%

Draw28.9%

FC Augsburg to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfL Bochum lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time40.0%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 865 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 14
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 5Actual: 7
FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.39

Attack: VfL Bochum score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.40

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–010.2%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.