Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

FC St. Pauli–Borussia Mönchengladbach

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+2'Borussia MönchengladbachK. Itakura (assist: F. Honorat)
85'FC St. PauliO. Afolayan (assist: E. Smith)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		Borussia Mönchengladbach
26	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
11	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
549	Passes	321
470	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.48 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 26 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 5; on target 9 and 3.
FC St. Pauli kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

C. Dingert→

4.52

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for FC St. Pauli, 1.27 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 862 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win42.2%

Draw27.2%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time42.9%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 862 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 9Actual: 6
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 5Actual: 11
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.48

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.39

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.9%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.